Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -600 EVAN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +19 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -10.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -8.2 (+10.8) | 141.2 (-16.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -8.8 (+10.2) | 138.3 (-13.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -8.4 (+10.6) | 139.9 (-14.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -8.5 (+10.5) | 141.2 (-16.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | EVAN 88 – 80 ILST |
| Jan 1, 2026 | ILST 73 – 47 EVAN |
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILST 62 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | EVAN 69 – 51 ILST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | EVAN 59 – 53 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 1-19 |
| Home | 8-7 | 3-10 |
| Away | 3-9 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#273) | -12.6 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#274) | -1.99 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#275) | -2.43 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#302) | 0.407 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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