Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -300 IU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +8 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -6.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -7.9 (-15.9) | 136.3 (+13.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -8.3 (-16.3) | 136.0 (+14.0) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -7.0 (-15.0) | 138.2 (+11.8) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -6.4 (-14.4) | 137.7 (+12.3) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PUR 93 – 64 IU |
| Jan 28, 2026 | IU 72 – 67 PUR |
| Feb 23, 2025 | IU 73 – 58 PUR |
| Feb 1, 2025 | PUR 81 – 76 IU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | PUR 79 – 59 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 16.7 (#8) | 13.4 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#4) | 2.27 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.10 (#3) | 2.77 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#5) | 0.594 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.1% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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