Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UNM +115 SDSU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -0.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -1.1 (-3.1) | 149.6 (-5.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -0.8 (-1.2) | 147.4 (-3.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -0.5 (-2.5) | 148.0 (-4.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -1.0 (-3.0) | 148.6 (-4.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SDSU 64 – 62 UNM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UNM 81 – 76 SDSU |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SDSU 83 – 79 UNM |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SDSU 73 – 65 UNM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNM 62 – 48 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#47) | 13.0 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#49) | 2.54 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#54) | 2.95 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#46) | 0.628 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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