Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN +210 PROV -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +20 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -9.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -8.8 (-11.2) | 152.0 (+4.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -9.9 (-10.1) | 150.8 (+5.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -8.4 (-11.6) | 150.5 (+5.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -8.2 (-11.8) | 151.7 (+4.3) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | GTWN 80 – 79 PROV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GTWN 81 – 78 PROV |
| Feb 20, 2025 | GTWN 93 – 72 PROV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PROV 78 – 68 GTWN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | PROV 74 – 56 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 13-7 |
| Home | 5-12 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-11 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#205) | 11.4 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#250) | 2.05 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#236) | 2.73 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#298) | 0.570 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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