Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD +188 UCSB -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +16 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -4.6 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -5.0 (-11.0) | 142.0 (+16.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -5.1 (-10.9) | 138.7 (+19.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -3.6 (-12.4) | 140.5 (+17.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -4.1 (-11.9) | 142.8 (+15.2) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCSD 64 – 63 UCSB |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCSB 62 – 48 UCSD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UCSD 69 – 51 UCSB |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCSD 77 – 63 UCSB |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCSD 84 – 76 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 4-10 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#256) | 3.0 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#283) | 0.78 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#279) | 0.79 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#271) | 0.526 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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