Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | MVSU +110 UAPB -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MVSU +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UAPB -2.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -3.0 (+7.0) | 140.7 (+11.3) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -2.9 (+6.9) | 136.7 (+15.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -2.3 (+6.3) | 140.0 (+12.0) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -2.5 (+6.5) | 141.2 (+10.8) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MVSU 70 – 69 UAPB |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UAPB 78 – 70 MVSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UAPB 83 – 58 MVSU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MVSU 79 – 76 UAPB |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UAPB 78 – 69 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 4-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 1-19 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -15.0 (#359) | -9.3 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.65 (#358) | -2.02 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.07 (#357) | -2.28 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#355) | 0.413 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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