Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -125 UCI +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -0.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -1.2 (+3.8) | 136.5 (+2.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -1.1 (+3.9) | 134.2 (+4.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -1.6 (+3.4) | 134.3 (+4.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -1.1 (+3.9) | 135.8 (+3.2) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | HAW 71 – 64 UCI |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCI 87 – 76 HAW |
| Jan 11, 2026 | HAW 67 – 66 UCI |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCI 66 – 49 HAW |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCI 71 – 55 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#133) | 5.1 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#137) | 0.67 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#113) | 0.91 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#166) | 0.536 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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