Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ALST +125 AAMU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +5 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | AAMU -0.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-33.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -0.3 (-4.7) | 138.0 (-33.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -0.1 (-5.1) | 136.1 (-31.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -0.2 (-4.8) | 137.6 (-32.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -0.3 (-4.7) | 137.9 (-32.9) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALST 89 – 88 AAMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | AAMU 73 – 69 ALST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALST 94 – 52 AAMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ALST 69 – 65 AAMU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AAMU 58 – 53 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-5 | 9-8 |
| Away | 2-18 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -12.6 (#349) | -9.0 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#350) | -1.79 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#348) | -2.26 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#338) | 0.414 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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