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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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79–40 on winners spread MAE 8.2 119 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Dayton @ VCU	-0.5	132.3	48%	47–49	✗
San Diego State @ Nevada	+1.1	141.6	54%	66–70	✓
San José State @ Colorado State	+13.1	141.4	89%	47–66	✓
UConn @ Georgetown	-14.9	143.2	12%	89–64	✓
Wisconsin @ Rutgers	-2.7	130.1	51%	56–78	✗
Alabama @ LSU	-8.3	174.8	19%	109–92	✓
Clemson @ Syracuse	-2.5	147.9	38%	77–68	✓
Loyola Chicago @ George Washington	-2.3	151.3	41%	81–73	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis	-12.3	145.3	14%	92–65	✓
UT Martin @ Western Illinois	+1.9	142.9	55%	62–59	✗
Columbia @ Brown	+2.3	142.0	65%	83–69	✗
Creighton @ Xavier	+1.5	151.2	61%	78–71	✗
Saint Louis @ Saint Joseph's	+9.6	153.5	84%	86–87	✓
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina	+10.2	133.4	85%	60–75	✓
Toledo @ App State	+4.6	150.2	69%	104–109	✓
High Point @ Gardner-Webb	-2.1	151.1	49%	78–62	✓
Monmouth @ Northeastern	+1.8	142.0	61%	65–77	✓
Iona @ Canisius	-0.8	143.9	49%	69–73	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut	+7.8	149.1	78%	62–71	✓
Samford @ VMI	-14.6	164.5	12%	102–63	✓
Vermont @ UMBC	-8.9	146.1	17%	72–70	✓
Navy @ Army	+0.3	128.8	42%	67–69	✓
Green Bay @ Youngstown State	+10.4	141.7	82%	84–83	✗
Boston College @ Duke	+11.7	145.8	86%	65–80	✓
Illinois @ Michigan State	+2.1	140.8	65%	80–88	✓
TCU @ Iowa State	+8.1	148.3	79%	59–71	✓
Miami (OH) @ Georgia State	+4.1	147.3	69%	53–73	✓
Central Michigan @ Old Dominion	+4.7	139.6	66%	58–57	✗
Western Michigan @ Southern Miss	+7.6	139.2	78%	54–86	✓
Indiana State @ Missouri State	-7.9	152.8	26%	73–71	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Hampton	-13.9	146.9	13%	95–65	✓
Stony Brook @ Campbell	-1.8	140.7	40%	77–95	✗
Hofstra @ North Carolina A&T	-9.4	139.5	22%	81–49	✓
Providence @ Butler	+3.0	150.4	67%	72–75	✓
American University @ Holy Cross	-5.5	132.3	32%	56–58	✗
La Salle @ Richmond	+10.7	145.3	84%	65–82	✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure	+4.6	135.5	69%	75–69	✗
Boston University @ Bucknell	+2.3	130.4	58%	77–62	✗
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's	+0.9	132.7	48%	64–62	✗
Milwaukee @ Robert Morris	-0.1	158.2	54%	60–71	✗
Cornell @ Yale	+3.7	147.6	64%	78–80	✓
Dartmouth @ Harvard	+9.8	134.7	86%	59–77	✓
Bryant @ Binghamton	-3.6	147.3	35%	70–69	✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota	+3.7	144.4	61%	65–47	✗
Omaha @ North Dakota State	+1.7	144.8	65%	79–81	✓
New Orleans @ East Texas A&M	+4.1	145.3	71%	83–89	✓
Central Arkansas @ North Florida	+9.8	154.5	83%	79–77	✗
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International	+2.3	137.6	61%	68–66	✗
George Mason @ Davidson	+0.7	134.9	55%	57–55	✗
Ohio @ Arkansas State	+2.1	157.2	60%	87–100	✓
Buffalo @ Georgia Southern	+6.9	145.4	76%	82–81	✗
Eastern Michigan @ UL Monroe	+5.3	139.4	70%	76–82	✓
Northern Illinois @ South Alabama	+4.6	153.5	72%	66–75	✓
West Virginia @ Texas	+11.7	144.9	85%	58–94	✓
South Florida @ Rice	-3.2	143.9	34%	69–65	✓
Winthrop @ Longwood	+1.1	143.9	65%	74–84	✓
Chicago State @ South Carolina State	+0.6	134.1	52%	55–78	✓
Fresno State @ Air Force	+0.5	134.3	53%	68–66	✗
Le Moyne @ Merrimack	+5.9	138.1	75%	50–66	✓
Mercer @ Western Carolina	+6.7	138.6	75%	46–79	✓
North Alabama @ Jacksonville	+0.1	141.3	49%	63–67	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Arlington	+0.5	147.2	61%	63–71	✓
Auburn @ Florida	-1.8	158.8	48%	65–81	✗
Drexel @ Charleston	+4.7	144.5	74%	70–80	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Morehead State	+13.2	131.6	86%	57–69	✓
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+0.3	154.2	39%	68–56	✗
North Carolina @ Miami	-3.0	152.5	41%	75–72	✓
Houston @ Cincinnati	-3.7	128.5	21%	67–62	✓
Gonzaga @ Kentucky	+3.1	165.2	54%	89–85	✗
UCF @ Texas Tech	+5.5	139.7	73%	59–66	✓
NC State @ Wake Forest	+7.3	149.1	74%	79–83	✓
East Carolina @ UTSA	-1.9	148.1	40%	84–73	✓
Belmont @ Valparaiso	-4.7	146.9	32%	96–78	✓
Evansville @ Murray State	+6.3	136.2	76%	70–73	✓
UNC Asheville @ South Carolina Upstate	-2.7	145.0	37%	77–64	✓
William & Mary @ Delaware	+10.3	141.9	85%	58–69	✓
Maryland @ Ohio State	+3.5	130.0	69%	75–79	✓
Texas Southern @ Florida A&M	-4.0	137.2	29%	78–75	✓
Quinnipiac @ Mount St. Mary's	-0.7	147.6	43%	79–96	✗
Stonehill @ Saint Francis	+3.0	133.1	70%	63–72	✓
Chattanooga @ UNC Greensboro	+3.4	148.2	68%	89–61	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky	+12.5	145.6	85%	67–79	✓
UMass Lowell @ NJIT	-8.8	141.4	23%	64–71	✗
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State	+4.2	148.3	71%	72–83	✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State	-2.6	134.6	36%	69–59	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Bethune-Cookman	+1.7	149.0	62%	78–84	✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley	+6.4	141.8	74%	45–74	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield	-0.1	130.6	51%	71–73	✗
Montana State @ Northern Arizona	-2.3	142.7	39%	71–76	✗
Montana @ Northern Colorado	-0.8	151.8	45%	71–87	✗
Kent State @ Troy	+6.0	146.3	75%	68–78	✓
Radford @ Presbyterian	-2.0	138.4	38%	73–76	✗
Tennessee Tech @ Lindenwood	+0.7	133.5	39%	62–53	✗
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian	-0.6	148.9	44%	83–86	✗
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State	-6.1	136.9	28%	77–74	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Stetson	+2.8	149.2	66%	79–87	✓
Ball State @ Texas State	+2.7	132.6	62%	60–68	✓
Washington State @ Oregon	+1.8	143.5	60%	62–56	✗
Alabama State @ Grambling	+1.7	127.8	63%	68–74	✓
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland	-12.5	133.1	13%	76–62	✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Denver	-3.0	147.9	45%	77–94	✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ McNeese	+8.9	137.2	83%	67–74	✓
Kennesaw State @ Lipscomb	+6.3	167.2	78%	95–101	✓
California Baptist @ Utah Tech	-4.6	138.1	38%	78–85	✗
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State	+0.5	143.7	49%	70–59	✗
Queens University @ Austin Peay	+3.5	150.8	68%	76–79	✓
UCLA @ California	-0.1	136.7	35%	61–60	✓
Baylor @ Kansas	+3.3	148.8	71%	61–64	✓
St. John's @ Marquette	+7.6	148.5	81%	75–86	✓
Akron @ James Madison	+6.1	143.0	72%	59–73	✓
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame	-6.0	133.5	36%	66–74	✗
Drake @ Bradley	+2.7	144.3	58%	74–67	✗
Georgia @ Arkansas	+0.6	152.4	63%	75–78	✓
Furman @ East Tennessee State	-0.1	144.7	53%	65–63	✓
Pennsylvania @ Princeton	+12.1	137.9	86%	70–77	✓
Tarleton State @ Seattle U	+5.6	139.8	68%	82–77	✗
Georgia Tech @ Louisville	-0.8	151.3	47%	67–79	✗
Michigan @ Nebraska	+6.8	152.4	80%	59–79	✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern	+10.4	145.4	87%	62–69	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.