Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | USM -300 WMU +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +32 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | USM -5.9 (+26.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -7.6 (+24.4) | 139.2 (+0.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -5.8 (+26.2) | 138.6 (+1.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -5.7 (+26.3) | 138.1 (+1.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -6.2 (+25.8) | 138.2 (+1.8) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#241) | -6.4 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#185) | -1.23 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#203) | -1.63 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#184) | 0.437 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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