Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -138 QUC +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +3 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -6.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -3.5 (-0.5) | 150.8 (+4.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -4.0 (-1.0) | 152.8 (+2.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -3.8 (-0.8) | 153.1 (+1.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -4.0 (-1.0) | 154.6 (+0.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | QUC 90 – 83 APSU |
| Feb 12, 2026 | APSU 95 – 87 QUC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | APSU 92 – 78 QUC |
| Jan 11, 2025 | QUC 67 – 60 APSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | QUC 70 – 69 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 82.6 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#232) | -6.9 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#220) | -0.79 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#232) | -1.10 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#217) | 0.456 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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