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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–12 on winners
spread MAE 9.9
49 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-5.0 | 149.0 | 29% | 67–55 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.2 | 140.7 | 86% | 62–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 132.4 | 66% | 90–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 131.2 | 84% | 66–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 139.8 | 72% | 68–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 131.2 | 61% | 77–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 140.7 | 80% | 64–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 159.2 | 50% | 74–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.9 | 140.8 | 70% | 57–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 154.1 | 64% | 56–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 138.0 | 71% | 52–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 142.5 | 86% | 68–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.6 | 142.3 | 88% | 79–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.0 | 155.4 | 90% | 59–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 139.2 | 50% | 69–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.3 | 150.1 | 85% | 80–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.3 | 149.7 | 82% | 85–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.6 | 132.7 | 37% | 80–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.0 | 146.7 | 32% | 58–75 | ✗ |
|
|
-12.0 | 135.1 | 12% | 77–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.9 | 151.4 | 87% | 65–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 135.3 | 54% | 62–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.9 | 133.3 | 29% | 78–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 139.3 | 57% | 65–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.4 | 140.8 | 29% | 75–51 | ✓ |
|
|
-16.2 | 137.3 | 12% | 76–51 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.5 | 136.2 | 35% | 67–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.0 | 143.0 | 72% | 72–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.6 | 137.5 | 72% | 49–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.9 | 128.6 | 86% | 53–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.3 | 159.4 | 32% | 99–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.9 | 143.0 | 86% | 66–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 143.3 | 74% | 61–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 152.6 | 62% | 68–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 146.8 | 79% | 70–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.5 | 142.4 | 22% | 89–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 145.4 | 78% | 82–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 136.6 | 57% | 70–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.6 | 147.1 | 21% | 95–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 136.0 | 72% | 54–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 146.9 | 76% | 63–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 154.5 | 36% | 70–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.9 | 137.0 | 31% | 73–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 132.5 | 65% | 68–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 163.6 | 82% | 78–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 149.3 | 84% | 79–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 146.6 | 84% | 60–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 152.2 | 72% | 85–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 136.9 | 44% | 65–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.