Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UL -333 BGSU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +26 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UL -8.6 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -10.6 (+15.4) | 146.6 (-0.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -8.1 (+17.9) | 146.4 (-0.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -7.9 (+18.1) | 146.8 (-0.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -8.0 (+18.0) | 148.1 (-2.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#131) | -2.8 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#140) | 0.07 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#137) | -0.06 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#111) | 0.483 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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