Betting Lines
| Spread | LAM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | LAM -225 NICH +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAM +19 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | LAM -5.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (-27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAM -4.8 (+14.2) | 154.9 (-23.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAM -3.1 (+15.9) | 154.1 (-23.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAM -4.6 (+14.4) | 151.2 (-20.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAM -4.3 (+14.7) | 153.6 (-22.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | NICH 53 – 52 LAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LAM 90 – 80 NICH |
| Mar 12, 2025 | LAM 58 – 55 NICH |
| Mar 4, 2025 | LAM 65 – 53 NICH |
| Jan 20, 2025 | LAM 78 – 74 NICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAM | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-11 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 3-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#224) | -4.7 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#272) | -0.48 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#250) | -0.87 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#273) | 0.482 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAM | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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