Betting Lines
| Spread | LAM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | LAM -145 NICH +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAM +12 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | LAM -2.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAM -1.0 (+11.0) | 140.6 (-22.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAM -2.1 (+9.9) | 140.3 (-22.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAM -1.2 (+10.8) | 139.2 (-21.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAM -1.5 (+10.5) | 142.2 (-24.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | NICH 53 – 52 LAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LAM 90 – 80 NICH |
| Mar 12, 2025 | LAM 58 – 55 NICH |
| Jan 20, 2025 | LAM 78 – 74 NICH |
| Feb 11, 2024 | LAM 75 – 56 NICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAM | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#182) | -0.3 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#186) | 0.07 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#182) | -0.02 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#166) | 0.528 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAM | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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