I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Portland Pilots
51 76
FINAL Conference
Saint Mary's Gaels
West Coast Conference · Chiles Center · February 11, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SMC -18.5 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Under
Money PORT +1700 / SMC -3300
Model Predictions
Spread Total PORT win
Actual SMC +25 127 Lost
Massey SMC -19.5 (-5.5)
Massey Totals 138.0 (-11.0)
Bradley-Terry 9%
Weighted B-T 6%
Efficiency Plus ML SMC -16.2 (-8.8) 137.3 (-10.3) 12%
Baseline Tuned ML SMC -17.7 (-7.3) 135.5 (-8.5) 13%
Baseline ML SMC -20.9 (-4.1) 134.8 (-7.8) 11%
Baseline Plus ML SMC -21.7 (-3.3) 135.1 (-8.1) 11%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 25, 2026 SMC 7569 PORT
Jan 3, 2026 SMC 7857 PORT
Feb 20, 2025 SMC 7966 PORT
Jan 5, 2025 SMC 8158 PORT
Jan 12, 2024 SMC 9552 PORT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PORT SMC
Overall 12-21 26-8
Conference 5-11 15-1
Home 9-6 14-4
Away 2-11 9-0
Neutral 1-4 3-4
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.8 73.0
Avg Pts Against 79.5 60.2
Massey -9.1 (#311) 13.8 (#22)
Bradley-Terry -1.00 (#277) 1.90 (#44)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.14 (#272) 2.24 (#52)
RPI 0.457 (#258) 0.594 (#37)
Shooting & Four Factors PORT SMC
FG% 43.6% 45.3%
3PT% 34.1% 32.9%
REB / G 32.7 39.1
OREB / G 8.0 13.5
AST / TO 1.03 1.47
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.3% 51.3%
TOV% 18.1% 16.4%
ORB% 23.2% 39.3%
FT Rate 23.5% 19.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.7% 44.7%
Opp TOV% 13.8% 17.9%
DRB% 71.1% 76.4%
Opp FT Rate 17.8% 23.4%

Game Analysis

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