Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -8000 PORT +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +43 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -20.4 (+22.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -17.2 (+25.8) | 134.8 (+12.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -19.7 (+23.3) | 133.0 (+14.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -15.4 (+27.6) | 133.3 (+13.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -17.5 (+25.5) | 134.7 (+12.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | SMC 75 – 69 PORT |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SMC 78 – 57 PORT |
| Feb 20, 2025 | SMC 79 – 66 PORT |
| Jan 5, 2025 | SMC 81 – 58 PORT |
| Feb 11, 2024 | SMC 76 – 51 PORT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-0 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#55) | -6.9 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#91) | -0.87 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#93) | -1.03 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#66) | 0.456 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 40.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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