Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | PAC +163 USD -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +5 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | USD -8.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+26.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -6.5 (+1.5) | 142.4 (+30.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -7.9 (+2.9) | 143.7 (+29.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -8.0 (+3.0) | 143.2 (+29.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -7.1 (+2.1) | 143.4 (+29.6) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | PAC 77 – 70 USD |
| Dec 28, 2025 | USD 66 – 54 PAC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | USD 81 – 77 PAC |
| Feb 7, 2025 | PAC 71 – 69 USD |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USD 75 – 65 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 0-16 | 7-9 |
| Home | 5-12 | 12-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L23 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.4 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -15.1 (#354) | -3.8 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#335) | 0.10 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.74 (#337) | 0.00 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#337) | 0.494 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 26.4 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 17.2% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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