Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UCR +333 UCI -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +10 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -10.4 (+20.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+31.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -9.0 (+19.0) | 135.4 (+30.6) | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -6.9 (+16.9) | 133.3 (+32.7) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -8.9 (+18.9) | 133.8 (+32.2) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -8.2 (+18.2) | 135.5 (+30.5) | 20% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCI 80 – 66 UCR |
| Dec 5, 2025 | UCI 73 – 60 UCR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCR 84 – 80 UCI |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UCI 81 – 57 UCR |
| Dec 29, 2023 | UCI 73 – 66 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-0 |
| Away | 4-12 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#254) | 9.0 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#268) | 1.52 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#259) | 1.86 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#265) | 0.583 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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