Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UCR +240 UCI -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +4 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -8.3 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -5.7 (+9.7) | 141.8 (+22.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -7.2 (+11.2) | 140.3 (+23.7) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -6.9 (+10.9) | 141.7 (+22.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -7.0 (+11.0) | 142.6 (+21.4) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCI 80 – 66 UCR |
| Dec 5, 2025 | UCI 73 – 60 UCR |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UCI 81 – 57 UCR |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UCR 88 – 78 UCI |
| Dec 29, 2023 | UCI 73 – 66 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-11 | 14-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#169) | 11.3 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#102) | 2.72 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#138) | 2.87 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#76) | 0.626 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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