Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA +130 UAB -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UAB -0.2 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -2.0 (-5.0) | 154.5 (-21.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -0.2 (-6.8) | 151.5 (-18.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -0.7 (-6.3) | 153.8 (-20.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -1.1 (-5.9) | 156.1 (-23.1) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UAB 68 – 63 TLSA |
| Jan 18, 2026 | TLSA 99 – 77 UAB |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UAB 78 – 68 TLSA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UAB 83 – 51 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#177) | 2.8 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#191) | 1.22 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#194) | 1.31 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#232) | 0.570 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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