Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA -625 UAB +455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +5 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -11.4 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.2 (-33.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -9.4 (-14.4) | 156.7 (-25.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -11.0 (-16.0) | 154.8 (-23.8) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -11.0 (-16.0) | 156.7 (-25.7) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -12.0 (-17.0) | 157.0 (-26.0) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | TLSA 99 – 77 UAB |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UAB 78 – 68 TLSA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UAB 83 – 51 TLSA |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UAB 70 – 63 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 8-9 |
| Away | 8-4 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#49) | 2.8 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#60) | 0.31 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#63) | 0.43 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#46) | 0.503 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 34.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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