Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -250 CSUN +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUN +8 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -6.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -5.9 (-13.9) | 145.4 (+10.6) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -4.8 (-12.8) | 145.9 (+10.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -4.7 (-12.7) | 146.1 (+9.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -4.6 (-12.6) | 146.2 (+9.8) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | CSUN 85 – 83 UCSB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CSUN 74 – 65 UCSB |
| Mar 14, 2025 | UCSB 78 – 72 CSUN |
| Mar 2, 2025 | CSUN 103 – 77 UCSB |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CSUN 78 – 71 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#162) | -2.9 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#177) | -0.07 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#171) | -0.40 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#187) | 0.483 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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