Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | HAW -115 UCD -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +17 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -1.9 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -1.6 (+15.4) | 136.6 (+20.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -1.2 (+15.8) | 137.9 (+19.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -0.5 (+16.5) | 139.3 (+17.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -1.0 (+16.0) | 137.0 (+20.0) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | HAW 77 – 73 UCD |
| Dec 5, 2025 | HAW 75 – 69 UCD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | HAW 78 – 70 UCD |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCD 68 – 66 HAW |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UCD 68 – 65 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#178) | 0.6 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#188) | 0.25 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#183) | 0.09 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#236) | 0.496 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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