Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
Big West Conference · Stan Sheriff Center · February 11, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread HAW -2.0 Home covered
O/U 137.0 Over
Money HAW -115 / UCD -105
Model Predictions
Spread Total HAW win
Actual HAW +17 157 Won
Massey HAW -1.9 (+15.1)
Massey Totals 137.0 (+20.0)
Bradley-Terry 55%
Weighted B-T 61%
Efficiency Plus ML HAW -1.6 (+15.4) 136.6 (+20.4) 57%
Baseline Tuned ML HAW -1.2 (+15.8) 137.9 (+19.1) 57%
Baseline ML HAW -0.5 (+16.5) 139.3 (+17.7) 52%
Baseline Plus ML HAW -1.0 (+16.0) 137.0 (+20.0) 53%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 27, 2026 HAW 7773 UCD
Dec 5, 2025 HAW 7569 UCD
Mar 2, 2025 HAW 7870 UCD
Jan 24, 2025 UCD 6866 HAW
Mar 16, 2024 UCD 6865 HAW

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HAW UCD
Overall 20-14 20-13
Conference 11-9 14-6
Home 13-6 10-6
Away 4-6 8-6
Neutral 3-2 2-1
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.8 70.5
Avg Pts Against 69.3 69.0
Massey -1.0 (#178) 0.6 (#155)
Bradley-Terry -0.18 (#188) 0.25 (#151)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.18 (#183) 0.09 (#164)
RPI 0.468 (#236) 0.496 (#179)
Shooting & Four Factors HAW UCD
FG% 44.7% 44.7%
3PT% 31.3% 33.6%
REB / G 33.5 33.6
OREB / G 8.9 9.9
AST / TO 0.95 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.5% 51.0%
TOV% 18.3% 20.7%
ORB% 27.0% 29.8%
FT Rate 27.5% 28.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.0% 48.2%
Opp TOV% 16.6% 21.3%
DRB% 75.2% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.9% 28.6%

Game Analysis

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