Betting Lines
| Spread | BUT -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | BUT -250 PROV +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUT +3 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | BUT -4.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUT -3.0 (+0.0) | 150.4 (-3.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -4.3 (-1.3) | 147.9 (-0.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -4.6 (-1.6) | 149.1 (-2.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUT -4.7 (-1.7) | 151.3 (-4.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | PROV 91 – 81 BUT |
| Feb 5, 2026 | PROV 97 – 87 BUT |
| Dec 13, 2025 | BUT 113 – 110 PROV |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BUT 75 – 69 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BUT 82 – 81 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#43) | 10.3 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#46) | 1.63 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#54) | 2.18 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#67) | 0.564 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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