Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | GWEB +163 HPU -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +16 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -1.6 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -2.1 (-13.9) | 151.1 (-11.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -0.7 (-15.3) | 152.7 (-12.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -1.2 (-14.8) | 154.5 (-14.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -2.6 (-13.4) | 157.0 (-17.0) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HPU 81 – 59 GWEB |
| Feb 14, 2026 | HPU 112 – 87 GWEB |
| Jan 8, 2026 | HPU 104 – 49 GWEB |
| Mar 7, 2025 | HPU 85 – 64 GWEB |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HPU 90 – 67 GWEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GWEB | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 13-3 |
| Home | 9-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 82.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#195) | 3.0 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#198) | 1.10 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#215) | 1.43 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#173) | 0.553 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GWEB | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 36.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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