Betting Lines
| Spread | CHST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SCST +130 CHST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCST +23 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CHST -1.4 (+24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SCST -0.6 (+22.4) | 134.1 (-1.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCST -0.3 (+22.7) | 135.7 (-2.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CHST -0.2 (+23.2) | 136.3 (-3.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CHST -0.1 (+23.1) | 136.9 (-3.9) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCST | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| Home | 9-4 | 6-5 |
| Away | 5-13 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#332) | -6.6 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#319) | -0.96 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#318) | -1.57 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#317) | 0.458 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCST | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.6% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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