Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | VCU +110 DAY -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +2 | 96 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -2.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (-37.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -0.5 (+2.5) | 132.3 (-36.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -1.4 (+3.4) | 132.4 (-36.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -1.9 (+3.9) | 132.2 (-36.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -0.7 (+2.7) | 132.8 (-36.8) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | VCU 70 – 62 DAY |
| Mar 7, 2026 | VCU 68 – 62 DAY |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VCU 99 – 73 DAY |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DAY 79 – 76 VCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | VCU 73 – 68 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-14 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-6 | 15-0 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#83) | 13.3 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#91) | 2.92 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#88) | 3.49 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#93) | 0.658 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 14.7% |
Game Analysis
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