Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -250 M-OH +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +20 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -5.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -4.1 (+15.9) | 147.3 (-21.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -5.0 (+15.0) | 143.3 (-17.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -4.9 (+15.1) | 144.8 (-18.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -4.8 (+15.2) | 146.7 (-20.7) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#202) | -4.1 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#254) | -0.53 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#243) | -0.98 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#256) | 0.472 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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