Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -110 WIN +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -0.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -1.1 (+8.9) | 143.9 (+14.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -0.6 (+9.4) | 142.0 (+16.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -0.1 (+10.1) | 143.5 (+14.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -0.2 (+9.8) | 144.1 (+13.9) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | WIN 79 – 74 LONG |
| Dec 31, 2025 | LONG 82 – 70 WIN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 88 – 79 LONG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | WIN 85 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#185) | 1.4 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#264) | 0.03 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#257) | 0.16 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#245) | 0.505 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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