Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | DEN +120 STMN -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +17 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -1.6 (+18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -3.0 (+20.0) | 147.9 (+23.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -1.9 (+18.9) | 147.3 (+23.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -1.7 (+18.7) | 148.7 (+22.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -2.5 (+19.5) | 148.1 (+22.9) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DEN 82 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | STMN 92 – 88 DEN |
| Mar 7, 2025 | STMN 80 – 62 DEN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | STMN 79 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 19, 2025 | STMN 74 – 62 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.1 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#204) | 2.5 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#258) | -0.14 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#253) | 0.25 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#258) | 0.485 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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