Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | GASO -400 BUF +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +1 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | GASO -8.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GASO -6.9 (-7.9) | 145.4 (+17.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -7.8 (-8.8) | 145.6 (+17.4) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -7.7 (-8.7) | 148.4 (+14.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -8.3 (-9.3) | 147.5 (+15.5) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 6-7 | 2-13 |
| Away | 2-14 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#312) | -14.3 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#323) | -3.33 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#307) | -3.83 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#335) | 0.404 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.