Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | CAN +210 IONA -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -0.6 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -0.8 (+4.8) | 143.9 (-1.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -0.1 (+3.9) | 145.2 (-3.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -0.3 (+4.3) | 146.2 (-4.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -0.5 (+4.5) | 145.0 (-3.0) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | IONA 69 – 63 CAN |
| Jan 11, 2026 | IONA 74 – 48 CAN |
| Mar 2, 2025 | IONA 82 – 52 CAN |
| Jan 17, 2025 | IONA 82 – 61 CAN |
| Jan 20, 2024 | IONA 70 – 58 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#256) | -0.7 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#279) | -0.23 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#274) | -0.12 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#243) | 0.504 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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