Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | IONA -750 CAN +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +26 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -13.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -10.3 (+15.7) | 141.8 (-19.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -10.2 (+15.8) | 138.4 (-16.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -11.0 (+15.0) | 138.0 (-16.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -10.9 (+15.1) | 138.8 (-16.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | IONA 69 – 63 CAN |
| Mar 2, 2025 | IONA 82 – 52 CAN |
| Jan 17, 2025 | IONA 82 – 61 CAN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CAN 73 – 69 IONA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | IONA 70 – 58 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-15 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 6-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 62.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#211) | -13.1 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#141) | -0.71 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#152) | -1.25 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#136) | 0.478 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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