Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | COFC -250 DREX +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +10 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -2.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -4.7 (+5.3) | 144.5 (+5.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -3.8 (+6.2) | 142.3 (+7.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -3.8 (+6.2) | 143.6 (+6.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -2.9 (+7.1) | 144.7 (+5.3) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | COFC 72 – 63 DREX |
| Feb 22, 2025 | DREX 64 – 55 COFC |
| Feb 3, 2023 | DREX 70 – 69 COFC |
| Feb 26, 2022 | DREX 80 – 79 COFC |
| Feb 15, 2022 | COFC 79 – 75 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 10-2 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#125) | 3.5 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#111) | 0.36 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#113) | 0.43 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#108) | 0.520 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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