Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | DREX +105 COFC -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +9 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -0.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-23.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -0.0 (+9.0) | 140.7 (-21.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -0.9 (+8.1) | 142.2 (-23.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -0.3 (+9.3) | 143.1 (-24.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -0.2 (+9.2) | 142.8 (-23.8) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | COFC 72 – 63 DREX |
| Feb 10, 2024 | COFC 80 – 70 DREX |
| Feb 3, 2023 | DREX 70 – 69 COFC |
| Feb 26, 2022 | DREX 80 – 79 COFC |
| Feb 15, 2022 | COFC 79 – 75 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#204) | 0.5 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#226) | 1.01 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#226) | 0.96 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#239) | 0.562 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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