Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 170.5 Over |
| Money | UK -188 GONZ +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +4 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -3.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -3.1 (-7.1) | 165.2 (+8.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -3.8 (-7.8) | 162.3 (+11.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -4.4 (-8.4) | 163.7 (+10.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -3.5 (-7.5) | 166.9 (+7.1) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | GONZ 94 – 59 UK |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UK 90 – 89 GONZ |
| Nov 21, 2022 | GONZ 88 – 72 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-2 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#21) | 14.4 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#33) | 1.63 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#32) | 2.35 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#51) | 0.564 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.1% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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