Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | USA -250 NIU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | USA -3.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -4.6 (+4.4) | 153.5 (-12.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -2.8 (+6.2) | 151.3 (-10.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -3.3 (+5.7) | 151.4 (-10.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -3.9 (+5.1) | 154.5 (-13.5) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#273) | -6.1 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#243) | -0.74 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#245) | -0.94 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#262) | 0.476 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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