Betting Lines
| Spread | ULM -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ULM -275 EMU +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +6 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | ULM -7.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ULM -5.3 (+0.7) | 139.4 (+18.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -4.8 (+1.2) | 140.5 (+17.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -5.6 (+0.4) | 142.1 (+15.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -4.7 (+1.3) | 143.0 (+15.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#302) | -12.2 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#300) | -1.45 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#300) | -2.00 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#298) | 0.415 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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