Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | APP -300 TOL +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +5 | 213 | Won |
| Massey | APP -7.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+63.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -4.6 (+0.4) | 150.2 (+62.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -6.4 (-1.4) | 149.0 (+64.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -6.5 (-1.5) | 151.6 (+61.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -6.5 (-1.5) | 152.7 (+60.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#91) | 2.7 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#77) | 0.90 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#92) | 0.77 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#73) | 0.547 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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