Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | PRES +130 RAD -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -1.6 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -2.0 (+5.0) | 138.4 (+10.6) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -1.4 (+4.4) | 138.4 (+10.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -1.5 (+4.5) | 139.4 (+9.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -1.2 (+4.2) | 141.4 (+7.6) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | PRES 91 – 85 RAD |
| Jan 31, 2026 | RAD 93 – 84 PRES |
| Jan 8, 2026 | RAD 80 – 61 PRES |
| Mar 7, 2025 | RAD 74 – 69 PRES |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PRES 80 – 73 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#296) | -2.6 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#297) | -0.35 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#296) | -0.38 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#329) | 0.489 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.9% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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