Ich lieb dich nicht; Du liebst mich nicht. "Da da da" - Trio
Texas State Bobcats
68 60
FINAL MAC-SBC Challenge
Ball State Cardinals
Strahan Arena at the University Events Center · February 10, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread TXST -2.5 Home covered
O/U 135.5 Under
Money TXST -150 / BALL +160
Model Predictions
Spread Total TXST win
Actual TXST +8 128 Won
Massey TXST -3.4 (+4.6)
Massey Totals 134.0 (-6.0)
Bradley-Terry 71%
Weighted B-T 77%
Efficiency Plus ML TXST -2.7 (+5.3) 132.6 (-4.6) 62%
Baseline Tuned ML TXST -2.3 (+5.7) 132.9 (-4.9) 61%
Baseline ML TXST -2.4 (+5.6) 134.0 (-6.0) 62%
Baseline Plus ML TXST -2.6 (+5.4) 134.4 (-6.4) 61%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TXST BALL
Overall 17-18 15-16
Conference 7-11 7-11
Home 9-4 9-7
Away 5-11 6-8
Neutral 3-3 0-1
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.5 72.0
Avg Pts Against 70.5 72.7
Massey -4.1 (#244) -4.1 (#246)
Bradley-Terry -0.59 (#229) -0.86 (#261)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.54 (#218) -1.05 (#259)
RPI 0.487 (#195) 0.450 (#273)
Shooting & Four Factors TXST BALL
FG% 42.2% 45.2%
3PT% 30.4% 37.4%
REB / G 35.8 34.3
OREB / G 11.0 9.1
AST / TO 0.78 0.99
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.0% 52.4%
TOV% 20.6% 18.6%
ORB% 31.2% 27.9%
FT Rate 23.3% 29.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 52.1%
Opp TOV% 17.3% 15.5%
DRB% 71.5% 73.6%
Opp FT Rate 27.4% 21.5%

Game Analysis

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