Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | TXST -150 BALL +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -3.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -2.7 (+5.3) | 132.6 (-4.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -2.3 (+5.7) | 132.9 (-4.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -2.4 (+5.6) | 134.0 (-6.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -2.6 (+5.4) | 134.4 (-6.4) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#244) | -4.1 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#229) | -0.86 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#218) | -1.05 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#195) | 0.450 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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