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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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81–38 on winners spread MAE 8.2 119 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Dayton @ VCU	-1.4	132.4	42%	47–49	✗
San Diego State @ Nevada	+1.7	140.9	57%	66–70	✓
San José State @ Colorado State	+16.1	144.4	90%	47–66	✓
UConn @ Georgetown	-14.7	143.6	14%	89–64	✓
Wisconsin @ Rutgers	-2.6	130.5	37%	56–78	✗
Alabama @ LSU	-7.2	169.6	26%	109–92	✓
Clemson @ Syracuse	-2.1	148.7	42%	77–68	✓
Loyola Chicago @ George Washington	-2.7	147.9	37%	81–73	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis	-13.2	141.4	14%	92–65	✓
UT Martin @ Western Illinois	+1.6	141.4	61%	62–59	✗
Columbia @ Brown	+0.9	143.1	53%	83–69	✗
Creighton @ Xavier	+0.7	150.9	56%	78–71	✗
Saint Louis @ Saint Joseph's	+10.6	152.7	87%	86–87	✓
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina	+12.8	131.9	87%	60–75	✓
Toledo @ App State	+6.4	149.0	72%	104–109	✓
High Point @ Gardner-Webb	-0.7	152.7	47%	78–62	✓
Monmouth @ Northeastern	+0.8	143.0	51%	65–77	✓
Iona @ Canisius	+0.1	145.2	50%	69–73	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut	+8.9	145.8	82%	62–71	✓
Samford @ VMI	-15.5	163.5	13%	102–63	✓
Vermont @ UMBC	-8.9	146.2	17%	72–70	✓
Navy @ Army	+0.6	126.6	53%	67–69	✓
Green Bay @ Youngstown State	+8.3	139.4	80%	84–83	✗
Boston College @ Duke	+10.7	148.1	86%	65–80	✓
Illinois @ Michigan State	+2.0	142.5	60%	80–88	✓
TCU @ Iowa State	+8.2	150.4	79%	59–71	✓
Miami (OH) @ Georgia State	+5.0	143.3	68%	53–73	✓
Central Michigan @ Old Dominion	+1.2	138.1	53%	58–57	✗
Western Michigan @ Southern Miss	+5.8	138.6	70%	54–86	✓
Indiana State @ Missouri State	-6.9	151.7	23%	73–71	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Hampton	-14.2	146.7	13%	95–65	✓
Stony Brook @ Campbell	-3.7	139.7	36%	77–95	✗
Hofstra @ North Carolina A&T	-8.0	138.1	19%	81–49	✓
Providence @ Butler	+4.3	147.9	72%	72–75	✓
American University @ Holy Cross	-5.4	135.9	28%	56–58	✗
La Salle @ Richmond	+12.3	142.4	88%	65–82	✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure	+5.4	135.6	70%	75–69	✗
Boston University @ Bucknell	+4.5	129.8	68%	77–62	✗
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's	+0.6	132.0	52%	64–62	✗
Milwaukee @ Robert Morris	+0.8	157.8	54%	60–71	✓
Cornell @ Yale	+3.0	148.9	65%	78–80	✓
Dartmouth @ Harvard	+9.6	133.3	86%	59–77	✓
Bryant @ Binghamton	-2.6	143.4	39%	70–69	✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota	+4.5	145.0	70%	65–47	✗
Omaha @ North Dakota State	+1.6	146.5	59%	79–81	✓
New Orleans @ East Texas A&M	+3.8	143.8	67%	83–89	✓
Central Arkansas @ North Florida	+10.2	150.9	85%	79–77	✗
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International	+2.2	138.5	63%	68–66	✗
George Mason @ Davidson	+2.1	135.9	57%	57–55	✗
Ohio @ Arkansas State	+2.2	153.5	60%	87–100	✓
Buffalo @ Georgia Southern	+7.8	145.6	77%	82–81	✗
Eastern Michigan @ UL Monroe	+4.8	140.5	69%	76–82	✓
Northern Illinois @ South Alabama	+2.8	151.3	64%	66–75	✓
West Virginia @ Texas	+11.7	144.5	87%	58–94	✓
South Florida @ Rice	-4.1	142.6	30%	69–65	✓
Winthrop @ Longwood	+0.6	142.0	51%	74–84	✓
Chicago State @ South Carolina State	+0.3	135.7	47%	55–78	✓
Fresno State @ Air Force	+0.8	135.8	56%	68–66	✗
Le Moyne @ Merrimack	+7.2	136.4	78%	50–66	✓
Mercer @ Western Carolina	+7.6	138.9	80%	46–79	✓
North Alabama @ Jacksonville	+0.4	143.6	51%	63–67	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Arlington	+1.5	145.3	60%	63–71	✓
Auburn @ Florida	-0.9	158.9	45%	65–81	✗
Drexel @ Charleston	+3.8	142.3	71%	70–80	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Morehead State	+14.1	131.3	88%	57–69	✓
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+0.9	155.8	55%	68–56	✗
North Carolina @ Miami	-3.1	150.5	37%	75–72	✓
Houston @ Cincinnati	-4.0	132.2	30%	67–62	✓
Gonzaga @ Kentucky	+3.8	162.3	66%	89–85	✗
UCF @ Texas Tech	+5.2	138.3	71%	59–66	✓
NC State @ Wake Forest	+8.7	147.5	80%	79–83	✓
East Carolina @ UTSA	-2.2	147.8	41%	84–73	✓
Belmont @ Valparaiso	-3.3	146.9	34%	96–78	✓
Evansville @ Murray State	+4.0	135.7	68%	70–73	✓
UNC Asheville @ South Carolina Upstate	-3.2	145.4	34%	77–64	✓
William & Mary @ Delaware	+12.2	143.7	88%	58–69	✓
Maryland @ Ohio State	+3.1	132.4	64%	75–79	✓
Texas Southern @ Florida A&M	-4.2	135.4	31%	78–75	✓
Quinnipiac @ Mount St. Mary's	-1.3	146.1	40%	79–96	✗
Stonehill @ Saint Francis	+3.1	132.8	65%	63–72	✓
Chattanooga @ UNC Greensboro	+2.4	146.9	67%	89–61	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky	+13.9	143.2	88%	67–79	✓
UMass Lowell @ NJIT	-7.4	139.7	21%	64–71	✗
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State	+4.8	148.4	72%	72–83	✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State	-3.2	137.3	36%	69–59	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Bethune-Cookman	+1.6	145.7	59%	78–84	✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley	+4.2	140.1	68%	45–74	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield	+0.6	128.9	55%	71–73	✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona	-1.5	142.9	45%	71–76	✗
Montana @ Northern Colorado	-0.0	154.6	53%	71–87	✗
Kent State @ Troy	+7.4	147.5	78%	68–78	✓
Radford @ Presbyterian	-1.4	138.4	43%	73–76	✗
Tennessee Tech @ Lindenwood	+1.3	133.9	50%	62–53	✗
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian	-0.5	146.8	45%	83–86	✗
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State	-6.5	135.9	24%	77–74	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Stetson	+3.5	148.7	69%	79–87	✓
Ball State @ Texas State	+2.3	132.9	61%	60–68	✓
Washington State @ Oregon	+2.1	145.0	59%	62–56	✗
Alabama State @ Grambling	+0.6	128.5	53%	68–74	✓
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland	-12.0	130.3	14%	76–62	✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Denver	-1.9	147.3	41%	77–94	✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ McNeese	+12.8	139.3	88%	67–74	✓
Kennesaw State @ Lipscomb	+6.3	169.4	76%	95–101	✓
California Baptist @ Utah Tech	-2.8	136.3	39%	78–85	✗
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State	+0.4	143.8	53%	70–59	✗
Queens University @ Austin Peay	+4.0	152.8	68%	76–79	✓
UCLA @ California	+1.8	137.1	60%	61–60	✗
Baylor @ Kansas	+4.4	150.3	71%	61–64	✓
St. John's @ Marquette	+7.7	148.0	79%	75–86	✓
Akron @ James Madison	+6.9	142.4	72%	59–73	✓
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame	-5.7	131.8	28%	66–74	✗
Drake @ Bradley	+2.3	147.3	63%	74–67	✗
Georgia @ Arkansas	+0.1	147.8	53%	75–78	✓
Furman @ East Tennessee State	+1.1	143.1	56%	65–63	✗
Pennsylvania @ Princeton	+12.3	139.6	88%	70–77	✓
Tarleton State @ Seattle U	+4.8	139.4	70%	82–77	✗
Georgia Tech @ Louisville	+1.1	149.5	55%	67–79	✓
Michigan @ Nebraska	+6.9	150.6	77%	59–79	✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern	+11.6	144.5	87%	62–69	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.