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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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45–15 on winners spread MAE 8.5 60 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Memphis @ Temple	-6.8	147.8	25%	84–77	✓
William & Mary @ Monmouth	+10.5	144.8	87%	64–68	✓
Stony Brook @ Elon	-2.9	144.9	37%	79–64	✓
Northeastern @ Campbell	-1.8	137.0	47%	86–76	✓
Hofstra @ Hampton	-11.2	141.4	15%	63–59	✓
Drexel @ UNC Wilmington	+3.3	137.7	69%	56–75	✓
Delaware @ Towson	+2.0	132.8	66%	74–62	✗
Iowa @ Penn State	-0.9	158.2	47%	79–89	✗
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac	+6.0	132.9	76%	73–84	✓
Manhattan @ Mount St. Mary's	+8.5	142.4	81%	78–82	✓
Marist @ Siena	-9.3	123.6	16%	67–51	✓
Iona @ Niagara	+0.2	147.5	52%	74–71	✗
Rider @ Fairfield	+4.6	148.2	70%	67–84	✓
Merrimack @ Long Island University	-11.2	132.1	15%	82–79	✓
Sacred Heart @ Central Connecticut	+5.4	141.2	72%	70–77	✓
Wagner @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+0.2	136.6	51%	66–62	✗
Le Moyne @ Stonehill	-3.8	140.7	35%	88–57	✓
Samford @ UNC Greensboro	-0.6	154.0	48%	78–69	✓
Green Bay @ Robert Morris	-1.6	140.8	44%	81–76	✓
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky	-0.9	145.2	47%	89–99	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State	+15.4	156.6	90%	85–92	✓
Vermont @ NJIT	-11.8	131.3	14%	61–63	✗
UMass Lowell @ UMBC	-6.9	157.8	23%	93–80	✓
New Hampshire @ Bryant	+2.6	151.9	64%	66–85	✓
North Alabama @ North Florida	+2.3	151.7	63%	79–74	✗
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville	+7.9	145.6	80%	55–59	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Liberty	+10.8	135.1	86%	53–88	✓
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville State	+2.6	132.6	63%	68–79	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Stephen F. Austin	+11.4	147.1	87%	84–92	✓
Arizona @ Utah	-3.4	158.7	37%	105–99	✓
Arizona State @ Colorado	+12.4	145.1	87%	70–82	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Charleston	+13.9	153.8	88%	58–80	✓
Denver @ South Dakota	-3.3	164.1	34%	86–92	✗
Omaha @ North Dakota	+2.1	146.0	60%	78–99	✓
Oral Roberts @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+5.1	140.0	72%	63–85	✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota State	+2.4	143.3	62%	78–82	✓
Queens University @ Lipscomb	+8.6	162.9	83%	88–90	✓
Kennesaw State @ Austin Peay	+3.5	155.7	66%	69–85	✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Valley	+0.3	136.5	49%	72–61	✗
Montana State @ Northern Colorado	+4.7	155.5	72%	70–73	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State	-0.3	134.1	47%	69–88	✗
Little Rock @ Western Illinois	+2.4	138.1	61%	63–60	✗
Tennessee State @ Lindenwood	-6.2	135.5	26%	65–55	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Southern Indiana	+1.0	132.4	54%	81–71	✗
Florida Atlantic @ UAB	-5.5	154.2	33%	73–76	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State	+11.5	132.5	86%	68–79	✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech	-1.2	148.3	45%	68–70	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Davis	+4.1	131.0	67%	58–71	✓
Portland State @ Weber State	+9.0	141.3	82%	72–84	✓
Montana @ Northern Arizona	-4.2	140.1	34%	94–66	✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho State	+5.0	132.0	69%	40–68	✓
Washington State @ Oregon State	-5.9	142.3	31%	64–58	✓
Washington @ Oregon	+4.2	158.4	69%	80–85	✓
UT Arlington @ California Baptist	+2.5	136.2	65%	63–64	✓
Abilene Christian @ Seattle U	+9.0	146.2	83%	52–75	✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge	+9.2	138.0	82%	65–78	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside	+1.9	131.7	60%	63–65	✓
UC Irvine @ UC Santa Barbara	-2.3	140.5	36%	76–61	✓
San Francisco @ Pepperdine	-8.0	143.9	20%	80–74	✓
UC San Diego @ Hawai'i	-2.5	139.5	39%	86–94	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.