Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | STO +140 LEM -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +31 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | LEM -3.0 (-28.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -4.3 (-26.7) | 141.5 (+3.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -3.8 (-27.2) | 140.7 (+4.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -3.1 (-27.9) | 141.3 (+3.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -4.5 (-26.5) | 143.1 (+1.9) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | STO 81 – 71 LEM |
| Feb 21, 2026 | STO 77 – 68 LEM |
| Jan 31, 2026 | STO 65 – 54 LEM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | STO 85 – 79 LEM |
| Jan 21, 2025 | LEM 73 – 72 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 9-7 |
| Home | 4-8 | 10-3 |
| Away | 0-19 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -14.6 (#351) | -8.2 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.10 (#356) | -1.65 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.68 (#354) | -2.09 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#342) | 0.414 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.