Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC +320 UML -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +13 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -6.7 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -7.2 (-5.8) | 158.2 (+14.8) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -6.9 (-6.1) | 157.8 (+15.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -6.3 (-6.7) | 159.6 (+13.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -7.1 (-5.9) | 159.7 (+13.3) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 69 UML |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 60 UML |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 56 UML |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UML 98 – 79 UMBC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UML 83 – 67 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 11-5 |
| Home | 6-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-12 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#303) | 1.7 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#341) | 0.43 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#332) | 0.41 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#345) | 0.509 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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