They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
Atlantic Sun Conference · F&M Bank Arena · February 9, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread KENN -1.5 Home covered
O/U 153.5 Over
Money APSU +110 / KENN -110
Model Predictions
Spread Total APSU win
Actual APSU +16 154 Won
Massey APSU -4.1 (+11.9)
Massey Totals 158.7 (-4.7)
Bradley-Terry 64%
Weighted B-T 61%
Efficiency Plus ML APSU -2.0 (+14.0) 153.6 (+0.4) 66%
Baseline Tuned ML APSU -3.5 (+12.5) 155.7 (-1.7) 66%
Baseline ML APSU -2.4 (+13.6) 155.8 (-1.8) 71%
Baseline Plus ML APSU -3.6 (+12.4) 156.8 (-2.8) 74%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 27, 2023 KENN 8457 APSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings APSU KENN
Overall 19-16 15-16
Conference 10-6 6-10
Home 14-3 9-5
Away 4-12 4-11
Neutral 1-1 2-0
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L2 L3
Avg Pts For 73.5 81.5
Avg Pts Against 74.8 83.7
Massey -4.1 (#242) -4.8 (#260)
Bradley-Terry -0.60 (#232) -0.56 (#228)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.86 (#242) -0.65 (#230)
RPI 0.470 (#227) 0.447 (#275)
Shooting & Four Factors APSU KENN
FG% 42.1% 44.4%
3PT% 34.0% 32.8%
REB / G 33.2 36.4
OREB / G 11.0 12.0
AST / TO 1.15 1.19
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.1% 51.6%
TOV% 14.0% 15.5%
ORB% 29.8% 30.1%
FT Rate 17.2% 24.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.3% 52.5%
Opp TOV% 18.2% 18.5%
DRB% 68.0% 67.2%
Opp FT Rate 26.6% 30.6%

Game Analysis

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