Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Western Athletic Conference · Burns Arena · February 9, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SUU -4.5 Home covered
O/U 151.5 Under
Money UTU +155 / SUU -200
Model Predictions
Spread Total UTU win
Actual UTU +2 138 Won
Massey SUU -1.5 (+3.5)
Massey Totals 154.5 (-16.5)
Bradley-Terry 63%
Weighted B-T 55%
Efficiency Plus ML SUU -2.4 (+4.4) 148.8 (-10.8) 47%
Baseline Tuned ML SUU -1.2 (+3.2) 148.3 (-10.3) 45%
Baseline ML SUU -1.2 (+3.2) 149.9 (-11.9) 45%
Baseline Plus ML SUU -1.8 (+3.8) 151.0 (-13.0) 45%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 1, 2026 SUU 8167 UTU
Jan 25, 2026 UTU 10291 SUU
Dec 30, 2025 UTU 8066 SUU
Mar 11, 2025 UTU 7265 SUU
Feb 28, 2025 SUU 8275 UTU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UTU SUU
Overall 11-20 10-21
Conference 7-13 5-15
Home 6-7 6-8
Away 4-13 3-13
Neutral 0-0 1-0
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L1 W1
Avg Pts For 70.4 73.2
Avg Pts Against 77.3 77.8
Massey -7.3 (#293) -2.4 (#204)
Bradley-Terry -0.84 (#260) -0.74 (#243)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.05 (#258) -0.58 (#221)
RPI 0.456 (#262) 0.455 (#264)
Shooting & Four Factors UTU SUU
FG% 43.5% 43.0%
3PT% 34.7% 29.2%
REB / G 34.7 33.7
OREB / G 9.9 10.4
AST / TO 0.80 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.7% 48.2%
TOV% 22.4% 16.4%
ORB% 27.6% 28.2%
FT Rate 24.1% 28.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.9% 51.8%
Opp TOV% 18.2% 17.4%
DRB% 68.3% 67.1%
Opp FT Rate 30.4% 23.6%

Game Analysis

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