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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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81–38 on winners spread MAE 9.8 119 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Michigan @ Purdue	-0.4	135.7	45%	70–53	✓
Kennesaw State @ North Florida	+5.7	133.0	71%	54–69	✓
Marist @ Rider	+0.8	136.4	53%	64–76	✓
Saint Peter's @ Siena	+5.7	137.9	77%	68–62	✗
Northern Kentucky @ Robert Morris	+3.0	138.7	64%	81–76	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland	+1.2	153.4	54%	81–86	✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama	+2.6	136.1	64%	81–82	✓
Stetson @ Bellarmine	+3.2	139.0	64%	62–67	✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe	-5.6	132.4	24%	57–47	✓
Little Rock @ UT Arlington	+1.3	146.2	52%	66–59	✗
Arkansas State @ Louisiana	+10.6	145.1	83%	68–81	✓
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama	+5.6	142.5	72%	84–75	✗
Marshall @ Florida International	-5.9	154.3	27%	79–66	✓
Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic	+2.4	132.4	59%	53–66	✓
Southern Miss @ UTSA	+0.4	142.1	51%	64–70	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge	-4.1	144.2	33%	105–58	✓
UC Davis @ UC San Diego	-5.0	146.3	28%	69–89	✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside	+4.7	126.6	68%	47–45	✗
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine	+16.0	136.8	90%	49–68	✓
Rice @ UAB	+12.9	138.2	87%	68–78	✓
Nevada @ Wyoming	-2.2	150.7	40%	64–71	✗
South Dakota @ Western Illinois	-10.0	142.4	19%	65–60	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb	+4.5	136.7	69%	79–69	✗
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton	-0.5	148.9	47%	67–83	✗
Denver @ North Dakota State	+14.9	143.0	90%	58–70	✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota State	+11.2	146.5	88%	73–92	✓
San Diego State @ Air Force	-13.2	125.3	14%	98–61	✓
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State	+2.4	132.6	66%	53–64	✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP	+1.0	139.6	53%	74–82	✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Tech	-11.8	140.4	16%	77–74	✓
Houston @ Temple	-9.7	131.7	18%	68–51	✓
Kansas @ Oklahoma	+3.3	140.5	67%	68–75	✓
UConn @ Creighton	+5.7	141.2	71%	66–74	✓
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse	+2.5	145.0	62%	60–78	✓
Loyola Maryland @ American University	+2.1	142.8	58%	70–71	✓
Auburn @ South Carolina	+3.0	148.9	67%	109–86	✗
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis	-13.3	143.6	15%	100–72	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga	+0.5	140.4	53%	74–66	✗
Kent State @ Toledo	+4.8	158.8	71%	74–76	✓
James Madison @ Northeastern	+5.2	139.0	75%	63–72	✓
George Mason @ Saint Joseph's	-1.1	148.7	43%	71–62	✓
Drexel @ William & Mary	-2.2	135.7	41%	79–64	✓
Norfolk State @ Coppin State	-2.1	149.4	38%	71–81	✗
Arkansas @ Vanderbilt	-9.4	153.9	20%	92–71	✓
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington	+7.4	137.3	78%	70–77	✓
Ball State @ Ohio	+4.6	152.1	71%	77–85	✓
Baylor @ Oklahoma State	-7.7	146.5	22%	81–66	✓
Maryland @ Minnesota	+6.0	146.3	74%	63–49	✗
Stony Brook @ NJIT	+3.3	140.3	64%	65–74	✓
SMU @ UCF	+0.3	137.5	54%	78–65	✗
San José State @ New Mexico	+9.2	132.2	81%	83–71	✗
NC State @ North Carolina	+6.1	145.8	75%	76–86	✓
Lehigh @ Holy Cross	+5.9	145.3	72%	75–72	✗
Florida @ Georgia	-3.0	151.5	37%	92–84	✓
UAlbany @ New Hampshire	+1.8	136.1	56%	64–71	✓
Marshall @ Florida International	-5.9	153.9	27%	89–72	✓
VMI @ Mercer	+7.8	158.3	80%	80–83	✓
Towson @ Hofstra	+4.4	143.6	68%	58–71	✓
Weber State @ Southern Utah	-4.0	157.2	37%	72–77	✗
Montana State @ Northern Arizona	-6.1	135.1	25%	58–53	✓
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado	+0.2	144.6	48%	82–76	✗
Montana @ Sacramento State	+0.5	127.5	48%	83–89	✓
Providence @ Villanova	+10.7	147.6	84%	56–71	✓
La Salle @ Richmond	+12.6	144.5	88%	84–78	✗
Army @ Navy	+3.4	138.5	64%	62–69	✓
Clemson @ Florida State	+6.3	140.2	75%	61–80	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word	+3.3	135.1	63%	53–72	✓
Troy @ Coastal Carolina	+11.7	139.0	87%	65–70	✓
Southern @ Alabama A&M	+4.5	146.9	73%	58–68	✓
Idaho State @ Portland State	+0.3	130.6	49%	43–69	✓
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss	+7.6	125.2	76%	50–61	✓
Ohio State @ Wisconsin	+4.3	135.7	71%	74–62	✗
West Virginia @ Kansas State	-10.0	138.8	16%	69–47	✓
Utah Valley @ St. John's	+9.5	154.8	82%	78–96	✓
Niagara @ Quinnipiac	-0.3	129.0	46%	69–78	✗
Duke @ Louisville	+6.3	143.3	75%	65–70	✓
Boston University @ Lafayette	+13.3	149.7	88%	81–76	✗
UT Martin @ Morehead State	+15.2	137.2	90%	44–76	✓
Central Arkansas @ Abilene Christian	+14.4	139.0	87%	58–93	✓
Georgia State @ App State	+0.1	146.0	49%	61–74	✓
Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic	+3.4	131.1	62%	74–71	✗
Southern Miss @ UTSA	+0.4	140.3	51%	72–78	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State	-13.6	139.4	15%	77–31	✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford	+10.1	148.5	84%	78–91	✓
Furman @ East Tennessee State	-1.2	144.1	46%	62–71	✗
Dayton @ VCU	+7.0	138.1	74%	43–66	✓
UCLA @ Stanford	+1.6	145.0	55%	72–73	✓
Kennesaw State @ North Florida	+5.7	131.4	72%	65–68	✓
Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana	+4.0	145.4	63%	73–68	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay	-0.4	155.8	50%	72–87	✗
Northern Kentucky @ Robert Morris	+2.9	137.6	64%	79–74	✗
UIC @ Youngstown State	-0.1	142.6	50%	77–85	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland	+1.0	152.6	54%	82–72	✗
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State	+2.6	132.0	67%	81–80	✗
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee State	-0.6	140.2	44%	54–65	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Belmont	+12.5	148.9	87%	62–114	✓
Jacksonville State @ Austin Peay	-0.3	141.7	48%	76–70	✓
Stetson @ Bellarmine	+3.6	136.1	67%	65–76	✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe	-5.8	130.9	23%	69–63	✓
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama	+5.7	143.5	73%	48–62	✓
Arkansas State @ Louisiana	+11.1	144.6	84%	74–77	✓
Little Rock @ UT Arlington	+1.3	145.0	53%	61–66	✓
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee	-7.5	132.9	20%	82–67	✓
Rice @ UAB	+13.0	137.2	87%	74–86	✓
San Diego @ Portland	+1.1	145.4	53%	78–70	✗
Jackson State @ Grambling	+5.6	129.3	74%	75–61	✗
Akron @ Western Michigan	-6.6	138.0	27%	79–68	✓
UC Davis @ UC San Diego	-3.4	146.9	33%	78–71	✓
Lamar @ Stephen F. Austin	+11.3	144.2	86%	72–102	✓
Alcorn State @ Alabama State	-0.8	134.9	44%	57–52	✓
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan	-5.2	143.7	29%	85–63	✓
Mississippi State @ Alabama	+13.2	150.6	87%	73–81	✓
Valparaiso @ Illinois State	+4.3	134.7	67%	69–60	✗
DePaul @ Marquette	+10.4	140.9	83%	68–61	✗
LSU New Orleans @ Nicholls	+9.1	148.6	82%	62–86	✓
McNeese @ Houston Christian	+9.6	155.6	82%	74–71	✗
Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest	-1.3	139.2	45%	75–76	✗
LSU @ Kentucky	-2.3	145.7	38%	69–82	✗
Texas Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-8.6	145.2	21%	66–57	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.