Betting Lines
| Spread | GB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | GB -125 PFW +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GB +15 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -0.3 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -0.4 (+15.4) | 155.8 (+3.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GB -0.5 (+14.5) | 151.8 (+7.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GB -2.9 (+12.1) | 154.7 (+4.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -0.1 (+15.1) | 155.7 (+3.3) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | GB 64 – 56 PFW |
| Feb 13, 2026 | GB 76 – 59 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2026 | GB 72 – 54 PFW |
| Feb 9, 2025 | PFW 89 – 74 GB |
| Dec 29, 2024 | PFW 83 – 67 GB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GB | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-17 | 8-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 6-6 | 5-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#276) | -3.8 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#294) | -0.69 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#279) | -1.08 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#277) | 0.457 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GB | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 51.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 42.3% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 59.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 26.5% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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